In [9]:
pm.plot_comp_plotly(output_image=True)
Out[9]:
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import datetime
from pathlib import Path
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import os, sys
sys.path.insert(0, os.path.abspath('../src'))
from utils import *
from fbp import ProphetModel
data_path = "../data"
DataDownloader(data_path).download_all_csv()
covidpro_df, dpc_regioni_df, dpc_province_df, pop_prov_df, prov_list_df = load_data(data_path)
province = "Firenze"
compart = "New_cases"
date = 'Date'
group_column = 'Province'
pm = ProphetModel(data=covidpro_df,
area=province,
compart=compart,
group_column=group_column,
date_column=date)
pm.plot_data()
pm.fit()
INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this.
pm.plot_comp_plotly(output_image=True)
pm.print_metrics()
MAE: 15.474 MSE: 610.937 RMSE: 24.717
pm.plot()
pm.plot_forecast(output_image=True)
# Tune the hyperparameters and fit
pm.fit_cv()
a0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f1fed37cc40> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bf9a0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bc190> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f1fed79ff70> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bc3a0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bf640> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c2dc0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f1fed37cc40> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f1fdd04c850> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bcfa0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c02e0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bf400> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bfd00> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f2020865100> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c5040> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c5040> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bcd60> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f1fed79ff10> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c2dc0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c2f40> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208652e0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c08e0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f1fed37cc40> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c16a0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bf3a0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c4760> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bc250> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c1b20> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c72e0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c78b0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c08e0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bf3a0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c0880> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c7490> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bc190> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f2038067d90> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bf1c0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bd460> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bcb20> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208c6b80> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bc460> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f20208bf520> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this.
pm.plot_comp()
pm.plot_comp_plotly(output_image=True)
pm.print_metrics()
MAE: 9.203 MSE: 385.328 RMSE: 19.630
pm.tuning_results
| changepoint_prior_scale | seasonality_prior_scale | holidays_prior_scale | rmse | mae | mse | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.001 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 27.650460 | 23.548298 | 764.547926 |
| 1 | 0.001 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 26.239607 | 22.230239 | 688.516967 |
| 2 | 0.001 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 25.835722 | 22.695496 | 667.484534 |
| 3 | 0.001 | 0.01 | 10.00 | 25.460709 | 22.206623 | 648.247706 |
| 4 | 0.001 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 28.154695 | 24.091847 | 792.686833 |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 59 | 0.500 | 1.00 | 10.00 | 14.937399 | 11.747133 | 223.125875 |
| 60 | 0.500 | 10.00 | 0.01 | 14.486510 | 11.023279 | 209.858964 |
| 61 | 0.500 | 10.00 | 0.10 | 13.530629 | 10.472022 | 183.077933 |
| 62 | 0.500 | 10.00 | 1.00 | 13.966635 | 10.966807 | 195.066893 |
| 63 | 0.500 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 14.765284 | 11.652110 | 218.013605 |
64 rows × 6 columns
pm.tuning_results.loc[
(pm.tuning_results.changepoint_prior_scale == pm.best_params['changepoint_prior_scale']) &
(pm.tuning_results.seasonality_prior_scale == pm.best_params['seasonality_prior_scale']) &
(pm.tuning_results.holidays_prior_scale == pm.best_params['holidays_prior_scale'])
]
| changepoint_prior_scale | seasonality_prior_scale | holidays_prior_scale | rmse | mae | mse | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.5 | 0.01 | 10.0 | 12.721718 | 10.376425 | 161.842108 |
pm.plot()
pm.plot_forecast(output_image=True)
province = "Firenze"
compart = "Deaths"
date = 'Date'
group_column = 'Province'
pm = ProphetModel(data=covidpro_df,
area=province,
compart=compart,
group_column=group_column,
date_column=date)
pm.plot_data()
pm.fit_cv()
e0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff10700> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fff4be0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff80100> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff38fa0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fe8bcd0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c6c8d6310> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff3a070> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c6f248130> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c6f248130> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff3a640> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c6f1d6040> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff384f0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fe8be20> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fe6bb80> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff38100> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fe6bb80> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fe8b130> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff10700> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff10d30> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff10760> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3feba7c0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff80100> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3feba0d0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fe6bb80> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fe64400> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fe64d60> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff38040> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff805e0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff10ca0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff38070> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fe6bb80> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fc148e0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fffa4c0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fc14910> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3feba4c0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fe5a400> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c5af15400> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3febaa60> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fe64370> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fb521c0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fe5eb20> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fe5a280> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this.
pm.tuning_results
pm.tuning_results.loc[
(pm.tuning_results.changepoint_prior_scale == pm.best_params['changepoint_prior_scale']) &
(pm.tuning_results.seasonality_prior_scale == pm.best_params['seasonality_prior_scale']) &
(pm.tuning_results.holidays_prior_scale == pm.best_params['holidays_prior_scale'])
]
| changepoint_prior_scale | seasonality_prior_scale | holidays_prior_scale | rmse | mae | mse | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1 | 0.01 | 0.1 | 1.594425 | 1.318595 | 2.542191 |
pm.plot_comp()
pm.plot_comp_plotly(output_image=True)
pm.print_metrics()
MAE: 1.838 MSE: 6.892 RMSE: 2.625
pm.plot()
pm.plot_forecast(output_image=True)
New cases
import logging
from tqdm import tqdm
logging.basicConfig()
handler = logging.StreamHandler()
logger = logging.getLogger('fbprophet')
logger.addHandler(handler)
logger.setLevel(logging.CRITICAL)
compart = "New_cases"
date = 'Date'
group_column = 'Province'
results = []
for province in tqdm(covidpro_df.Province.unique()):
pm = ProphetModel(data=covidpro_df,
area=province,
compart=compart,
group_column=group_column,
date_column=date)
pm.fit_cv(initial=None, period=None)
results.append([province, np.round(pm.mae(), 2), np.round(pm.mse(), 2), np.round(pm.rmse(), 2)])
prov_res = pd.DataFrame(results, columns=['province', 'mae', 'mse', 'rmse'])
prov_res
prov_res = pd.read_csv("../results/fbp_province.csv")
prov_res
| province | mae | mse | rmse | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Agrigento | 0.88 | 3.73 | 1.93 |
| 1 | Alessandria | 17.39 | 797.02 | 28.23 |
| 2 | Ancona | 4.97 | 71.94 | 8.48 |
| 3 | Aosta | 7.01 | 118.77 | 10.90 |
| 4 | Arezzo | 3.83 | 58.21 | 7.63 |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 86 | Vercelli | 6.43 | 116.11 | 10.78 |
| 87 | Verona | 16.96 | 632.48 | 25.15 |
| 88 | Vibo Valentia | 0.85 | 2.36 | 1.54 |
| 89 | Vicenza | 7.48 | 135.94 | 11.66 |
| 90 | Viterbo | 3.06 | 28.97 | 5.38 |
91 rows × 4 columns
prov_res.plot(x="province", y="mse", xlabel="", ylabel="MSE", legend=False, figsize=(16,5), kind="bar")
plt.show()
prov_res.loc[(prov_res.mse < 1000)].plot(x="province", y="mse", xlabel="", ylabel="MSE", legend=False, figsize=(16,5), kind="bar")
plt.show()
prov_res.plot(x="province", y="mae", xlabel="", ylabel="MAE", legend=False, figsize=(16,5), color="g", kind="bar")
plt.show()
prov_res.plot(x="province", y="rmse", xlabel="", ylabel="RMSE", legend=False, figsize=(16,5), color="r", kind="bar")
plt.show()
prov_res.to_csv("../results/fbp_province.csv", index=False)
print(prov_res.to_latex(index=False))
Total positives
compart = "totale_positivi"
date = 'data'
group_column = 'denominazione_regione'
results_reg = []
for reg in tqdm(dpc_regioni_df.denominazione_regione.unique()):
pm = ProphetModel(
data=dpc_regioni_df,
area=reg,
compart=compart,
group_column=group_column,
date_column=date,
query='20200701 > data')
pm.fit_cv(initial=None, period=None)
results_reg.append([reg, np.round(pm.mae(), 2), np.round(pm.mse(), 2), np.round(pm.rmse(), 2)])
100%|██████████| 20/20 [3:55:36<00:00, 706.83s/it]
prov_reg = pd.DataFrame(results_reg, columns=['region', 'mae', 'mse', 'rmse'])
prov_reg
| region | mae | mse | rmse | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Abruzzo | 30.19 | 2569.91 | 50.69 |
| 1 | Basilicata | 3.59 | 25.21 | 5.02 |
| 2 | Calabria | 19.91 | 1486.67 | 38.56 |
| 3 | Campania | 45.27 | 7481.97 | 86.50 |
| 4 | Emilia-Romagna | 171.80 | 123400.66 | 351.28 |
| 5 | Friuli Venezia Giulia | 44.68 | 5611.03 | 74.91 |
| 6 | Lazio | 89.15 | 24054.01 | 155.09 |
| 7 | Liguria | 159.62 | 107162.13 | 327.36 |
| 8 | Lombardia | 428.06 | 354387.93 | 595.30 |
| 9 | Marche | 45.86 | 4941.81 | 70.30 |
| 10 | Molise | 9.53 | 151.70 | 12.32 |
| 11 | Piemonte | 254.09 | 294116.89 | 542.33 |
| 12 | Puglia | 69.36 | 27789.53 | 166.70 |
| 13 | Sardegna | 20.25 | 1635.94 | 40.45 |
| 14 | Sicilia | 62.86 | 11918.14 | 109.17 |
| 15 | Toscana | 90.27 | 31196.84 | 176.63 |
| 16 | Trentino Alto Adige | 69.93 | 15466.73 | 124.37 |
| 17 | Umbria | 5.88 | 81.83 | 9.05 |
| 18 | Valle d'Aosta | 9.86 | 204.74 | 14.31 |
| 19 | Veneto | 142.14 | 73890.12 | 271.83 |
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
prov_reg.plot(x="region", y="mse", xlabel="", ylabel="MSE", legend=False, figsize=(8,5), kind='bar')
plt.show()
prov_reg.loc[(prov_reg.mse < 50000)].plot(x="region", y="mse", xlabel="", ylabel="MSE", legend=False, figsize=(8,5), kind='bar')
plt.show()
prov_reg.plot(x="region", y="mae", xlabel="", ylabel="MAE", legend=False, figsize=(8,5), color="g", kind='bar')
plt.show()
prov_reg.plot(x="region", y="rmse", xlabel="", ylabel="RMSE", legend=False, figsize=(8,5), color="r", kind='bar')
plt.show()
prov_reg.to_csv("../results/fbp_region.csv", index=False)
print(prov_reg.to_latex(index=False))
\begin{tabular}{lrrr}
\toprule
region & mae & mse & rmse \\
\midrule
Abruzzo & 30.19 & 2569.91 & 50.69 \\
Basilicata & 3.59 & 25.21 & 5.02 \\
Calabria & 19.91 & 1486.67 & 38.56 \\
Campania & 45.27 & 7481.97 & 86.50 \\
Emilia-Romagna & 171.80 & 123400.66 & 351.28 \\
Friuli Venezia Giulia & 44.68 & 5611.03 & 74.91 \\
Lazio & 89.15 & 24054.01 & 155.09 \\
Liguria & 159.62 & 107162.13 & 327.36 \\
Lombardia & 428.06 & 354387.93 & 595.30 \\
Marche & 45.86 & 4941.81 & 70.30 \\
Molise & 9.53 & 151.70 & 12.32 \\
Piemonte & 254.09 & 294116.89 & 542.33 \\
Puglia & 69.36 & 27789.53 & 166.70 \\
Sardegna & 20.25 & 1635.94 & 40.45 \\
Sicilia & 62.86 & 11918.14 & 109.17 \\
Toscana & 90.27 & 31196.84 & 176.63 \\
Trentino Alto Adige & 69.93 & 15466.73 & 124.37 \\
Umbria & 5.88 & 81.83 & 9.05 \\
Valle d'Aosta & 9.86 & 204.74 & 14.31 \\
Veneto & 142.14 & 73890.12 & 271.83 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
logger.setLevel(logging.INFO)
province = "Lombardia"
compart = "nuovi_positivi"
date = 'data'
group_column = 'denominazione_regione'
pm = ProphetModel(data=dpc_regioni_df,
area=province,
compart=compart,
group_column=group_column,
date_column=date,
query='20200701 > data')
pm.plot_data()
pm.fit_cv()
process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fcab2e0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fc5ef10> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c4b566730> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fbd1220> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fc9ed00> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c4b566820> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fc14a90> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3c536130> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fc91dc0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fcabee0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fcab2e0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c4b523130> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fb482e0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fc91c70> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff34820> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c4b566790> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fe75eb0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fc6b580> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fcabee0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c4b566670> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fc6bb80> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c4b5231f0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fc6b880> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fb48dc0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fcabee0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c7efbfe80> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3c6a9250> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3febf310> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fcab5b0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fc6ba00> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fb83430> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3c6907f0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c4b5231f0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3c6907f0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c7efbfa00> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fc6b580> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff30f10> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fc6b580> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c4b5231f0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fcab130> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff3e1c0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff3e1c0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3ff30070> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fb48b50> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fbdebb0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3fc6b880> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3c6a9ee0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5c3c690cd0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this.
pm.tuning_results
pm.tuning_results.loc[
(pm.tuning_results.changepoint_prior_scale == pm.best_params['changepoint_prior_scale']) &
(pm.tuning_results.seasonality_prior_scale == pm.best_params['seasonality_prior_scale']) &
(pm.tuning_results.holidays_prior_scale == pm.best_params['holidays_prior_scale'])
]
| changepoint_prior_scale | seasonality_prior_scale | holidays_prior_scale | rmse | mae | mse | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.5 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 161.739217 | 125.190144 | 26159.5742 |
pm.plot_comp()
pm.plot_comp_plotly(output_image=True)
pm.print_metrics()
MAE: 155.750 MSE: 51536.673 RMSE: 227.017
pm.plot()
pm.plot_forecast(output_image=True)
province = "Lombardia"
compart = "totale_positivi"
date = 'data'
group_column = 'denominazione_regione'
pm = ProphetModel(data=dpc_regioni_df,
area=province,
compart=compart,
group_column=group_column,
date_column=date,
query='20200701 > data')
pm.plot_data()
pm.fit_cv()
INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b8ca8ae80> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b8cb9f610> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b8cc48af0> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b942199a0> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b8fcc78e0> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b942796d0> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b8ccd4310> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b8d14a790> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b8ccd4ac0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b8cd660d0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b94296fa0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b8cb685b0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b8fcc75e0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b8cd520a0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b8ccd4490> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f5b8cb65c10> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this.
pm.tuning_results
pm.tuning_results.loc[
(pm.tuning_results.changepoint_prior_scale == pm.best_params['changepoint_prior_scale']) &
(pm.tuning_results.seasonality_prior_scale == pm.best_params['seasonality_prior_scale']) &
(pm.tuning_results.holidays_prior_scale == pm.best_params['holidays_prior_scale'])
]
pm.plot_comp()
pm.plot_comp_plotly(output_image=True)
pm.print_metrics()
MAE: 445.890 MSE: 380196.095 RMSE: 616.600
pm.plot()
pm.plot_forecast(output_image=True)
Logistic growth
province = "Lombardia"
compart = "totale_casi"
date = 'data'
group_column = 'denominazione_regione'
pm = ProphetModel(data=dpc_regioni_df,
area=province,
compart=compart,
group_column=group_column,
date_column=date,
query='20200701 > data',
growth='logistic',
holidays=True)
pm.plot_data()
pm.fit_cv()
INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb639d5aca0> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb63924d940> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb639b05610> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb638e0e9d0> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb63962dee0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb6352939d0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb639628820> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb639b05190> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb639263100> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb635293580> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb639610b50> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb639628df0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb63924dbe0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb639b05790> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb63924d940> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7fb639d6b5b0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this.
pm.plot_comp()
pm.print_metrics()
MAE: 183.144 MSE: 59699.977 RMSE: 244.336
pm.plot()
compart = 'Cases_Rolling_7'
pm = ProphetModel(data=covidpro_df,
area=province,
compart=compart,
group_column=group_column,
date_column=date)
pm.plot_data()
INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f87758c3370> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f8741020ee0> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f87758ee3a0> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f8740bed940> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f8775817340> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f8775840a30> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f8775911eb0> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f8741020370> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f8775926fa0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f87758e9ee0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f8775911bb0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f8775846bb0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f8775926b80> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f8775911b20> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f8775919730> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f877592aeb0> INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this.
pm.fit_cv()
pm.plot_comp()
MAE: 2.654 MSE: 16.766 RMSE: 4.095
pm.print_metrics()
pm.plot()
Make the series stationary beforehand
province = "Firenze"
compart = "New_cases"
date = 'Date'
group_column = 'Province'
query = '20200701 > Date'
tmp_df = covidpro_df[covidpro_df.Province == province].query(query)
tmp_df[compart] = tmp_df[compart].apply(lambda x: 0 if x is np.nan or x < 0 else x)
tmp_df = tmp_df.set_index(date)
res = np.log(tmp_df[compart]) - np.log(tmp_df[compart]).shift(1)
res_fix = res.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).interpolate(method='time')
res_fix = res_fix.fillna(0)
tmp_df = pd.DataFrame(res_fix).reset_index()
tmp_df['Province'] = province
| Date | New_cases | Province | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2020-02-24 | 0.000000 | Firenze |
| 1 | 2020-02-25 | 0.000000 | Firenze |
| 2 | 2020-02-26 | 0.000000 | Firenze |
| 3 | 2020-02-27 | 0.072975 | Firenze |
| 4 | 2020-02-28 | 0.145950 | Firenze |
| ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 123 | 2020-06-26 | -0.005970 | Firenze |
| 124 | 2020-06-27 | -0.105844 | Firenze |
| 125 | 2020-06-28 | -0.205717 | Firenze |
| 126 | 2020-06-29 | -0.305591 | Firenze |
| 127 | 2020-06-30 | -0.405465 | Firenze |
128 rows × 3 columns
tmp_df
pm = ProphetModel(data=tmp_df,
area=province,
compart=compart,
group_column=group_column,
date_column=date)
pm.plot_data()
INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f99171f4340> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f9917248670> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f992267d520> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f99172283a0> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f9917244910> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f99171eebe0> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f99171fb3a0> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f9917228820> WARNING:fbprophet.models:Optimization terminated abnormally. Falling back to Newton. INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f99171eec70> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f99171f4220> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f9921726130> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f9917240bb0> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f99171f4e80> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f9917266b50> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f99171ee880> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Making 3 forecasts with cutoffs between 2020-05-19 00:00:00 and 2020-06-16 00:00:00 INFO:fbprophet:Applying in parallel with <concurrent.futures.process.ProcessPoolExecutor object at 0x7f9917256e20> INFO:fbprophet:Skipping MAPE because y close to 0 INFO:fbprophet:Disabling yearly seasonality. Run prophet with yearly_seasonality=True to override this. INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with daily_seasonality=True to override this.
pm.fit_cv()
pm.plot_comp()
MAE: 0.459 MSE: 0.421 RMSE: 0.649
pm.print_metrics()
pm.plot()